New York · District 1
LaLota wins 88 of 100 simulated elections
The simulation rates NY-1 safe Republican. The middle simulated result is R+6.9, and 8 in 10 fall between R+14.4 and D+0.5.
DEM WINS
REP WINS
12
88
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
Chris Gallant (D) vs. Nick LaLota (R)
Margin, 8 in 10 simulated elections
R+15EvenD+15
Beside the benchmarks
- Our simulation, Nov. 3
- Gallant 12 in 100
- Statistics only, no simulation
- Gallant 12 in 100
- Expert ratings, averaged
- Likely R
- Incumbent
- Nick LaLota (R)
On watch: statistics, with the biggest stories checked every day.
Over time
Gallant's chance in 100
The shaded band is the toss-up zone, 45 to 55.
Other seats in New York
- New York 17
DEM WINS
REP WINS
63
37
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- New York 3
DEM WINS
REP WINS
84
16
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- New York 21
DEM WINS
REP WINS
5
95
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- New York 6
DEM WINS
REP WINS
96
4
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- New York 4
DEM WINS
REP WINS
96
4
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- New York 2
DEM WINS
REP WINS
3
97
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
Social simulation, not a pollTue, 13 Oct 2026