Washington · District 5
Baumgartner wins 89 of 100 simulated elections
The simulation rates WA-5 safe Republican. The middle simulated result is R+6.9, and 8 in 10 fall between R+14.3 and D+0.4.
DEM WINS
REP WINS
11
89
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
Carmela Conroy (D) vs. Michael Baumgartner (R)
Margin, 8 in 10 simulated elections
R+15EvenD+15
Beside the benchmarks
- Our simulation, Nov. 3
- Conroy 11 in 100
- Statistics only, no simulation
- Conroy 11 in 100
- Expert ratings, averaged
- Safe R
- Incumbent
- Michael Baumgartner (R)
On watch: statistics, with the biggest stories checked every day.
Over time
Conroy's chance in 100
The shaded band is the toss-up zone, 45 to 55.
Other seats in Washington
- Washington 3
DEM WINS
REP WINS
78
22
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Washington 4
DEM WINS
REP WINS
6
94
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Washington 8
DEM WINS
REP WINS
95
5
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Washington 10
DEM WINS
REP WINS
100
0
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Washington 6
DEM WINS
REP WINS
100
0
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Washington 2
DEM WINS
REP WINS
100
0
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
Social simulation, not a pollTue, 13 Oct 2026