November 3, 2026Updated daily
NotAPoll.org

Iowa · District 4

McGowan wins 99 of 100 simulated elections

The simulation rates IA-4 safe Republican. The middle simulated result is R+25.0, and 8 in 10 fall between R+37.0 and R+13.3.

DEM WINS

REP WINS

1

99

of 100 simulations, 3 Nov

Dave Dawson (D) vs. Chris McGowan (R)

Margin, 8 in 10 simulated elections

R+40EvenD+40

Beside the benchmarks

Our simulation, Nov. 3
Dawson 1 in 100
Statistics only, no simulation
Dawson 0 in 100
Expert ratings, averaged
Safe R
Incumbent
Randy Feenstra (R), not running

Statistics only: every benchmark calls this seat safe.

Over time

Dawson's chance in 100

The shaded band is the toss-up zone, 45 to 55.

025507510012 Oct13 Oct1

Other seats in Iowa

  • Iowa 2

    DEM WINS

    REP WINS

    33

    67

    of 100 simulations, 3 Nov

  • Iowa 1

    DEM WINS

    REP WINS

    31

    69

    of 100 simulations, 3 Nov

  • Iowa 3

    DEM WINS

    REP WINS

    28

    72

    of 100 simulations, 3 Nov

Social simulation, not a pollTue, 13 Oct 2026