Pennsylvania · District 4
Dean wins 99 of 100 simulated elections
The simulation rates PA-4 safe Democratic. The middle simulated result is D+25.9, and 8 in 10 fall between D+14.3 and D+37.8.
DEM WINS
REP WINS
99
1
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
Madeleine Dean (D) vs. Aurora Stuski (R)
Margin, 8 in 10 simulated elections
R+40EvenD+40
Beside the benchmarks
- Our simulation, Nov. 3
- Dean 99 in 100
- Statistics only, no simulation
- Dean 100 in 100
- Expert ratings, averaged
- Safe D
- Incumbent
- Madeleine Dean (D)
Statistics only: every benchmark calls this seat safe.
Over time
Dean's chance in 100
The shaded band is the toss-up zone, 45 to 55.
Other seats in Pennsylvania
- Pennsylvania 7
DEM WINS
REP WINS
52
48
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Pennsylvania 10
DEM WINS
REP WINS
43
57
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Pennsylvania 1
DEM WINS
REP WINS
42
58
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Pennsylvania 8
DEM WINS
REP WINS
20
80
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Pennsylvania 17
DEM WINS
REP WINS
95
5
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Pennsylvania 11
DEM WINS
REP WINS
3
97
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
Social simulation, not a pollTue, 13 Oct 2026