Wisconsin · District 1
Steil wins 70 of 100 simulated elections
The simulation rates WI-1 likely Republican. The middle simulated result is R+2.8, and 8 in 10 fall between R+9.8 and D+4.2.
DEM WINS
REP WINS
30
70
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
Mitchell Berman (D) vs. Bryan Steil (R)
Margin, 8 in 10 simulated elections
R+10EvenD+10
Beside the benchmarks
- Our simulation, Nov. 3
- Berman 30 in 100
- Statistics only, no simulation
- Berman 29 in 100
- Expert ratings, averaged
- Lean R
- Incumbent
- Bryan Steil (R)
Full simulation: voter personas react to each day's news in this race.
Over time
Berman's chance in 100
The shaded band is the toss-up zone, 45 to 55.
Other seats in Wisconsin
- Wisconsin 3
DEM WINS
REP WINS
28
72
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Wisconsin 8
DEM WINS
REP WINS
6
94
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Wisconsin 7
DEM WINS
REP WINS
4
96
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Wisconsin 6
DEM WINS
REP WINS
3
97
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Wisconsin 5
DEM WINS
REP WINS
2
98
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Wisconsin 4
DEM WINS
REP WINS
100
0
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
Social simulation, not a pollTue, 13 Oct 2026