Democrats are slight favorites to win the House
- Safe D
- Likely D
- Lean D
- Toss-up
- Lean R
- Likely R
- Safe R
One square per seat. Select a square for its race.
Control
DEM WINS
REP WINS
62
38
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
Democrats win 218 or more seats in 62 of every 100 simulated elections. The middle result is 222 Democratic seats; 8 in 10 fall between 205 and 247.
- If the election were today
- Democrats 68 in 100
- Statistics only, no simulation
- Democrats 57 in 100
- Prediction markets
- Democrats 90%
Democratic seats
The closest seats
- Pennsylvania 7
Bob Brooks (D) vs. Ryan Mackenzie (R)
DEM WINS
REP WINS
52
48
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- North Carolina 1
Don Davis (D) vs. Laurie Buckhout (R)
DEM WINS
REP WINS
52
48
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Michigan 10
Christina Hines (D) vs. Mike Bouchard Jr. (R)
DEM WINS
REP WINS
47
53
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Texas 34
Vicente Gonzalez (D) vs. Eric Flores (R)
DEM WINS
REP WINS
54
46
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Virginia 2
Elaine Luria (D) vs. Jen Kiggans (R)
DEM WINS
REP WINS
54
46
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Michigan 7
William Lawrence (D) vs. Tom Barrett (R)
DEM WINS
REP WINS
55
45
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Colorado 8
Manny Rutinel (D) vs. Gabe Evans (R)
DEM WINS
REP WINS
44
56
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Pennsylvania 10
Janelle Stelson (D) vs. Scott Perry (R)
DEM WINS
REP WINS
43
57
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Ohio 9
Marcy Kaptur (D) vs. Derek Merrin (R)
DEM WINS
REP WINS
42
58
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Pennsylvania 1
Bob Harvie (D) vs. Brian Fitzpatrick (R)
DEM WINS
REP WINS
42
58
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Maine 2
Matthew Dunlap (D) vs. Paul LePage (R)
DEM WINS
REP WINS
41
59
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Florida 14
Kathy Castor (D) vs. Mike Beltran (R)
DEM WINS
REP WINS
59
41
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
Over time