Texas · District 30
III wins 100 of 100 simulated elections
The simulation rates TX-30 safe Democratic. The middle simulated result is D+52.4, and 8 in 10 fall between D+40.7 and D+64.2.
DEM WINS
REP WINS
100
0
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
Frederick Haynes III (D) vs. Everett Jackson (R)
Margin, 8 in 10 simulated elections
R+65EvenD+65
Beside the benchmarks
- Our simulation, Nov. 3
- III 100 in 100
- Statistics only, no simulation
- III 100 in 100
- Expert ratings, averaged
- Safe D
- Incumbent
- Jasmine Crockett (D), not running
Statistics only: every benchmark calls this seat safe.
Over time
III's chance in 100
The shaded band is the toss-up zone, 45 to 55.
Other seats in Texas
- Texas 34
DEM WINS
REP WINS
54
46
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Texas 15
DEM WINS
REP WINS
38
62
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Texas 28
DEM WINS
REP WINS
68
32
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Texas 35
DEM WINS
REP WINS
24
76
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Texas 23
DEM WINS
REP WINS
10
90
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Texas 38
DEM WINS
REP WINS
6
94
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
Social simulation, not a pollTue, 13 Oct 2026