Florida · District 16
Gruters wins 85 of 100 simulated elections
The simulation rates FL-16 safe Republican. The middle simulated result is R+5.7, and 8 in 10 fall between R+12.8 and D+1.4.
DEM WINS
REP WINS
15
85
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
Kelly Kirschner (D) vs. Sydney Gruters (R)
Margin, 8 in 10 simulated elections
R+15EvenD+15
Beside the benchmarks
- Our simulation, Nov. 3
- Kirschner 15 in 100
- Statistics only, no simulation
- Kirschner 15 in 100
- Expert ratings, averaged
- Likely R
- Incumbent
- Vern Buchanan (R), not running
Full simulation: voter personas react to each day's news in this race.
Over time
Kirschner's chance in 100
The shaded band is the toss-up zone, 45 to 55.
Other seats in Florida
- Florida 14
DEM WINS
REP WINS
59
41
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Florida 22
DEM WINS
REP WINS
38
62
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Florida 25
DEM WINS
REP WINS
72
28
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Florida 7
DEM WINS
REP WINS
15
85
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Florida 9
DEM WINS
REP WINS
14
86
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Florida 11
DEM WINS
REP WINS
12
88
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
Social simulation, not a pollTue, 13 Oct 2026