Michigan · District 5
Walberg wins 99 of 100 simulated elections
The simulation rates MI-5 safe Republican. The middle simulated result is R+25.1, and 8 in 10 fall between R+36.8 and R+13.3.
DEM WINS
REP WINS
1
99
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
Christian Vukasovich (D) vs. Tim Walberg (R)
Margin, 8 in 10 simulated elections
R+40EvenD+40
Beside the benchmarks
- Our simulation, Nov. 3
- Vukasovich 1 in 100
- Statistics only, no simulation
- Vukasovich 0 in 100
- Expert ratings, averaged
- Safe R
- Incumbent
- Tim Walberg (R)
Statistics only: every benchmark calls this seat safe.
Over time
Vukasovich's chance in 100
The shaded band is the toss-up zone, 45 to 55.
Other seats in Michigan
- Michigan 10
DEM WINS
REP WINS
47
53
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Michigan 7
DEM WINS
REP WINS
55
45
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Michigan 4
DEM WINS
REP WINS
29
71
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Michigan 8
DEM WINS
REP WINS
91
9
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Michigan 3
DEM WINS
REP WINS
97
3
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Michigan 1
DEM WINS
REP WINS
2
98
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
Social simulation, not a pollTue, 13 Oct 2026