Texas · District 4
Fallon wins 98 of 100 simulated elections
The simulation rates TX-4 safe Republican. The middle simulated result is R+21.7, and 8 in 10 fall between R+33.5 and R+9.9.
DEM WINS
REP WINS
2
98
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
Jason Pearce (D) vs. Pat Fallon (R)
Margin, 8 in 10 simulated elections
R+35EvenD+35
Beside the benchmarks
- Our simulation, Nov. 3
- Pearce 2 in 100
- Statistics only, no simulation
- Pearce 1 in 100
- Expert ratings, averaged
- Safe R
- Incumbent
- Pat Fallon (R)
Statistics only: every benchmark calls this seat safe.
Over time
Pearce's chance in 100
The shaded band is the toss-up zone, 45 to 55.
Other seats in Texas
- Texas 34
DEM WINS
REP WINS
54
46
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Texas 15
DEM WINS
REP WINS
38
62
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Texas 28
DEM WINS
REP WINS
68
32
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Texas 35
DEM WINS
REP WINS
24
76
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Texas 23
DEM WINS
REP WINS
10
90
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Texas 38
DEM WINS
REP WINS
6
94
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
Social simulation, not a pollTue, 13 Oct 2026