Indiana · District 4
Baird wins 99 of 100 simulated elections
The simulation rates IN-4 safe Republican. The middle simulated result is R+27.5, and 8 in 10 fall between R+39.3 and R+15.7.
DEM WINS
REP WINS
1
99
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
Drew Cox (D) vs. Jim Baird (R)
Margin, 8 in 10 simulated elections
R+40EvenD+40
Beside the benchmarks
- Our simulation, Nov. 3
- Cox 1 in 100
- Statistics only, no simulation
- Cox 0 in 100
- Expert ratings, averaged
- Safe R
- Incumbent
- Jim Baird (R)
Statistics only: every benchmark calls this seat safe.
Over time
Cox's chance in 100
The shaded band is the toss-up zone, 45 to 55.
Other seats in Indiana
- Indiana 5
DEM WINS
REP WINS
10
90
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Indiana 1
DEM WINS
REP WINS
95
5
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Indiana 2
DEM WINS
REP WINS
1
99
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Indiana 9
DEM WINS
REP WINS
0
100
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Indiana 3
DEM WINS
REP WINS
0
100
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Indiana 6
DEM WINS
REP WINS
0
100
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
Social simulation, not a pollTue, 13 Oct 2026