Alabama · District 4
Aderholt wins 100 of 100 simulated elections
The simulation rates AL-4 safe Republican. The middle simulated result is R+62.3, and 8 in 10 fall between R+74.1 and R+50.7.
DEM WINS
REP WINS
0
100
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
Amanda Pusczek (D) vs. Robert Aderholt (R)
Margin, 8 in 10 simulated elections
R+75EvenD+75
Beside the benchmarks
- Our simulation, Nov. 3
- Pusczek 0 in 100
- Statistics only, no simulation
- Pusczek 0 in 100
- Expert ratings, averaged
- Safe R
- Incumbent
- Robert Aderholt (R)
Statistics only: every benchmark calls this seat safe.
Over time
Pusczek's chance in 100
The shaded band is the toss-up zone, 45 to 55.
Other seats in Alabama
- Alabama 2
DEM WINS
REP WINS
26
74
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Alabama 5
DEM WINS
REP WINS
1
99
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Alabama 7
DEM WINS
REP WINS
99
1
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Alabama 1
DEM WINS
REP WINS
0
100
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Alabama 6
DEM WINS
REP WINS
0
100
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Alabama 3
DEM WINS
REP WINS
0
100
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
Social simulation, not a pollTue, 13 Oct 2026