Ohio · District 15
Carey wins 85 of 100 simulated elections
The simulation rates OH-15 safe Republican. The middle simulated result is R+5.7, and 8 in 10 fall between R+12.8 and D+1.4.
DEM WINS
REP WINS
15
85
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
Don Leonard (D) vs. Mike Carey (R)
Margin, 8 in 10 simulated elections
R+15EvenD+15
Beside the benchmarks
- Our simulation, Nov. 3
- Leonard 15 in 100
- Statistics only, no simulation
- Leonard 15 in 100
- Expert ratings, averaged
- Likely R
- Incumbent
- Mike Carey (R)
On watch: statistics, with the biggest stories checked every day.
Over time
Leonard's chance in 100
The shaded band is the toss-up zone, 45 to 55.
Other seats in Ohio
- Ohio 9
DEM WINS
REP WINS
42
58
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Ohio 7
DEM WINS
REP WINS
37
63
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Ohio 10
DEM WINS
REP WINS
16
84
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Ohio 1
DEM WINS
REP WINS
87
13
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Ohio 14
DEM WINS
REP WINS
4
96
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Ohio 13
DEM WINS
REP WINS
97
3
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
Social simulation, not a pollTue, 13 Oct 2026