Michigan · District 11
Moss wins 98 of 100 simulated elections
The simulation rates MI-11 safe Democratic. The middle simulated result is D+22.0, and 8 in 10 fall between D+10.2 and D+33.6.
DEM WINS
REP WINS
98
2
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
Jeremy Moss (D) vs. Ethan Baker (R)
Margin, 8 in 10 simulated elections
R+35EvenD+35
Beside the benchmarks
- Our simulation, Nov. 3
- Moss 98 in 100
- Statistics only, no simulation
- Moss 99 in 100
- Expert ratings, averaged
- Safe D
- Incumbent
- Haley Stevens (D), not running
Statistics only: every benchmark calls this seat safe.
Over time
Moss's chance in 100
The shaded band is the toss-up zone, 45 to 55.
Other seats in Michigan
- Michigan 10
DEM WINS
REP WINS
47
53
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Michigan 7
DEM WINS
REP WINS
55
45
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Michigan 4
DEM WINS
REP WINS
29
71
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Michigan 8
DEM WINS
REP WINS
91
9
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Michigan 3
DEM WINS
REP WINS
97
3
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Michigan 1
DEM WINS
REP WINS
2
98
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
Social simulation, not a pollTue, 13 Oct 2026