Missouri · District 4
Alford wins 100 of 100 simulated elections
The simulation rates MO-4 safe Republican. The middle simulated result is R+38.9, and 8 in 10 fall between R+50.7 and R+27.3.
DEM WINS
REP WINS
0
100
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
Jordan Herrera (D) vs. Mark Alford (R)
Margin, 8 in 10 simulated elections
R+55EvenD+55
Beside the benchmarks
- Our simulation, Nov. 3
- Herrera 0 in 100
- Statistics only, no simulation
- Herrera 0 in 100
- Expert ratings, averaged
- Safe R
- Incumbent
- Mark Alford (R)
Statistics only: every benchmark calls this seat safe.
Over time
Herrera's chance in 100
The shaded band is the toss-up zone, 45 to 55.
Other seats in Missouri
- Missouri 2
DEM WINS
REP WINS
24
76
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Missouri 3
DEM WINS
REP WINS
1
99
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Missouri 5
DEM WINS
REP WINS
100
0
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Missouri 6
DEM WINS
REP WINS
0
100
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Missouri 7
DEM WINS
REP WINS
0
100
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Missouri 8
DEM WINS
REP WINS
0
100
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
Social simulation, not a pollTue, 13 Oct 2026