Maine · District 2
LePage wins 59 of 100 simulated elections
The simulation rates ME-2 lean Republican. The middle simulated result is R+1.2, and 8 in 10 fall between R+8.1 and D+5.7.
DEM WINS
REP WINS
41
59
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
Matthew Dunlap (D) vs. Paul LePage (R)
Margin, 8 in 10 simulated elections
R+10EvenD+10
Beside the benchmarks
- Our simulation, Nov. 3
- Dunlap 41 in 100
- Statistics only, no simulation
- Dunlap 39 in 100
- Expert ratings, averaged
- Lean R
- Incumbent
- Jared Golden (D), not running
Full simulation: voter personas react to each day's news in this race.
Over time
Dunlap's chance in 100
The shaded band is the toss-up zone, 45 to 55.
Other seats in Maine
- Maine 1
DEM WINS
REP WINS
100
0
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
Social simulation, not a pollTue, 13 Oct 2026