Tennessee · District 4
DesJarlais wins 98 of 100 simulated elections
The simulation rates TN-4 safe Republican. The middle simulated result is R+20.8, and 8 in 10 fall between R+32.5 and R+8.9.
DEM WINS
REP WINS
2
98
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
Victoria Broderick (D) vs. Scott DesJarlais (R)
Margin, 8 in 10 simulated elections
R+35EvenD+35
Beside the benchmarks
- Our simulation, Nov. 3
- Broderick 2 in 100
- Statistics only, no simulation
- Broderick 1 in 100
- Expert ratings, averaged
- Safe R
- Incumbent
- Scott DesJarlais (R)
Statistics only: every benchmark calls this seat safe.
Over time
Broderick's chance in 100
The shaded band is the toss-up zone, 45 to 55.
Other seats in Tennessee
- Tennessee 9
DEM WINS
REP WINS
7
93
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Tennessee 5
DEM WINS
REP WINS
4
96
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Tennessee 8
DEM WINS
REP WINS
4
96
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Tennessee 7
DEM WINS
REP WINS
3
97
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Tennessee 6
DEM WINS
REP WINS
2
98
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Tennessee 2
DEM WINS
REP WINS
0
100
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
Social simulation, not a pollTue, 13 Oct 2026