Illinois · District 16
LaHood wins 98 of 100 simulated elections
The simulation rates IL-16 safe Republican. The middle simulated result is R+20.9, and 8 in 10 fall between R+32.8 and R+9.2.
DEM WINS
REP WINS
2
98
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
Paul Nolley (D) vs. Darin LaHood (R)
Margin, 8 in 10 simulated elections
R+35EvenD+35
Beside the benchmarks
- Our simulation, Nov. 3
- Nolley 2 in 100
- Statistics only, no simulation
- Nolley 1 in 100
- Expert ratings, averaged
- Safe R
- Incumbent
- Darin LaHood (R)
Statistics only: every benchmark calls this seat safe.
Over time
Nolley's chance in 100
The shaded band is the toss-up zone, 45 to 55.
Other seats in Illinois
- Illinois 14
DEM WINS
REP WINS
95
5
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Illinois 6
DEM WINS
REP WINS
95
5
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Illinois 8
DEM WINS
REP WINS
97
3
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Illinois 13
DEM WINS
REP WINS
98
2
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Illinois 11
DEM WINS
REP WINS
98
2
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Illinois 17
DEM WINS
REP WINS
99
1
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
Social simulation, not a pollTue, 13 Oct 2026