New York · District 17
Conley wins 63 of 100 simulated elections
The simulation rates NY-17 lean Democratic. The middle simulated result is D+1.8, and 8 in 10 fall between R+5.3 and D+8.7.
DEM WINS
REP WINS
63
37
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
Cait Conley (D) vs. Mike Lawler (R)
Margin, 8 in 10 simulated elections
R+10EvenD+10
Beside the benchmarks
- Our simulation, Nov. 3
- Conley 63 in 100
- Statistics only, no simulation
- Conley 59 in 100
- Expert ratings, averaged
- Toss-up
- Incumbent
- Mike Lawler (R)
Full simulation: voter personas react to each day's news in this race.
Over time
Conley's chance in 100
The shaded band is the toss-up zone, 45 to 55.
Other seats in New York
- New York 3
DEM WINS
REP WINS
84
16
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- New York 1
DEM WINS
REP WINS
12
88
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- New York 21
DEM WINS
REP WINS
5
95
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- New York 6
DEM WINS
REP WINS
96
4
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- New York 4
DEM WINS
REP WINS
96
4
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- New York 2
DEM WINS
REP WINS
3
97
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
Social simulation, not a pollTue, 13 Oct 2026