Missouri · District 2
Wagner wins 76 of 100 simulated elections
The simulation rates MO-2 likely Republican. The middle simulated result is R+3.9, and 8 in 10 fall between R+11.1 and D+3.4.
DEM WINS
REP WINS
24
76
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
Fred Wellman (D) vs. Ann Wagner (R)
Margin, 8 in 10 simulated elections
R+15EvenD+15
Beside the benchmarks
- Our simulation, Nov. 3
- Wellman 24 in 100
- Statistics only, no simulation
- Wellman 24 in 100
- Expert ratings, averaged
- Likely R
- Incumbent
- Ann Wagner (R)
Full simulation: voter personas react to each day's news in this race.
Over time
Wellman's chance in 100
The shaded band is the toss-up zone, 45 to 55.
Other seats in Missouri
- Missouri 3
DEM WINS
REP WINS
1
99
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Missouri 5
DEM WINS
REP WINS
100
0
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Missouri 6
DEM WINS
REP WINS
0
100
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Missouri 7
DEM WINS
REP WINS
0
100
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Missouri 4
DEM WINS
REP WINS
0
100
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Missouri 8
DEM WINS
REP WINS
0
100
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
Social simulation, not a pollTue, 13 Oct 2026