Florida · District 9
Green wins 86 of 100 simulated elections
The simulation rates FL-9 safe Republican. The middle simulated result is R+6.0, and 8 in 10 fall between R+13.3 and D+1.1.
DEM WINS
REP WINS
14
86
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
Darren Soto (D) vs. Dan Green (R)
Margin, 8 in 10 simulated elections
R+15EvenD+15
Beside the benchmarks
- Our simulation, Nov. 3
- Soto 14 in 100
- Statistics only, no simulation
- Soto 14 in 100
- Expert ratings, averaged
- Likely R
- Incumbent
- Darren Soto (D)
On watch: statistics, with the biggest stories checked every day.
Over time
Soto's chance in 100
The shaded band is the toss-up zone, 45 to 55.
Other seats in Florida
- Florida 14
DEM WINS
REP WINS
59
41
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Florida 22
DEM WINS
REP WINS
38
62
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Florida 25
DEM WINS
REP WINS
72
28
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Florida 7
DEM WINS
REP WINS
15
85
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Florida 16
DEM WINS
REP WINS
15
85
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Florida 11
DEM WINS
REP WINS
12
88
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
Social simulation, not a pollTue, 13 Oct 2026