Virginia · District 1
Wittman wins 59 of 100 simulated elections
The simulation rates VA-1 lean Republican. The middle simulated result is R+1.2, and 8 in 10 fall between R+8.2 and D+5.8.
DEM WINS
REP WINS
41
59
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
Shannon Taylor (D) vs. Rob Wittman (R)
Margin, 8 in 10 simulated elections
R+10EvenD+10
Beside the benchmarks
- Our simulation, Nov. 3
- Taylor 41 in 100
- Statistics only, no simulation
- Taylor 39 in 100
- Expert ratings, averaged
- Toss-up
- Incumbent
- Rob Wittman (R)
Full simulation: voter personas react to each day's news in this race.
Over time
Taylor's chance in 100
The shaded band is the toss-up zone, 45 to 55.
Other seats in Virginia
- Virginia 2
DEM WINS
REP WINS
54
46
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Virginia 5
DEM WINS
REP WINS
7
93
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Virginia 10
DEM WINS
REP WINS
97
3
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Virginia 7
DEM WINS
REP WINS
97
3
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Virginia 6
DEM WINS
REP WINS
0
100
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Virginia 9
DEM WINS
REP WINS
0
100
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
Social simulation, not a pollTue, 13 Oct 2026