New Hampshire · District 1
Shaheen wins 90 of 100 simulated elections
The simulation rates NH-1 safe Democratic. The middle simulated result is D+7.0, and 8 in 10 fall between R+0.1 and D+14.1.
DEM WINS
REP WINS
90
10
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
Stefany Shaheen (D) vs. Anthony DiLorenzo (R)
Margin, 8 in 10 simulated elections
R+15EvenD+15
Beside the benchmarks
- Our simulation, Nov. 3
- Shaheen 90 in 100
- Statistics only, no simulation
- Shaheen 87 in 100
- Expert ratings, averaged
- Likely D
- Incumbent
- Chris Pappas (D), not running
On watch: statistics, with the biggest stories checked every day.
Over time
Shaheen's chance in 100
The shaded band is the toss-up zone, 45 to 55.
Other seats in New Hampshire
- New Hampshire 2
DEM WINS
REP WINS
99
1
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
Social simulation, not a pollTue, 13 Oct 2026