Pennsylvania · District 1
Fitzpatrick wins 58 of 100 simulated elections
The simulation rates PA-1 lean Republican. The middle simulated result is R+1.1, and 8 in 10 fall between R+8.1 and D+6.0.
DEM WINS
REP WINS
42
58
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
Bob Harvie (D) vs. Brian Fitzpatrick (R)
Margin, 8 in 10 simulated elections
R+10EvenD+10
Beside the benchmarks
- Our simulation, Nov. 3
- Harvie 42 in 100
- Statistics only, no simulation
- Harvie 40 in 100
- Expert ratings, averaged
- Lean R
- Incumbent
- Brian Fitzpatrick (R)
Full simulation: voter personas react to each day's news in this race.
Over time
Harvie's chance in 100
The shaded band is the toss-up zone, 45 to 55.
Other seats in Pennsylvania
- Pennsylvania 7
DEM WINS
REP WINS
52
48
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Pennsylvania 10
DEM WINS
REP WINS
43
57
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Pennsylvania 8
DEM WINS
REP WINS
20
80
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Pennsylvania 17
DEM WINS
REP WINS
95
5
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Pennsylvania 11
DEM WINS
REP WINS
3
97
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Pennsylvania 16
DEM WINS
REP WINS
2
98
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
Social simulation, not a pollTue, 13 Oct 2026