New Mexico · District 1
Stansbury wins 99 of 100 simulated elections
The simulation rates NM-1 safe Democratic. The middle simulated result is D+23.0, and 8 in 10 fall between D+11.2 and D+34.9.
DEM WINS
REP WINS
99
1
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
Melanie Stansbury (D) vs. Didi Okpareke (R)
Margin, 8 in 10 simulated elections
R+35EvenD+35
Beside the benchmarks
- Our simulation, Nov. 3
- Stansbury 99 in 100
- Statistics only, no simulation
- Stansbury 99 in 100
- Expert ratings, averaged
- Safe D
- Incumbent
- Melanie Stansbury (D)
Statistics only: every benchmark calls this seat safe.
Over time
Stansbury's chance in 100
The shaded band is the toss-up zone, 45 to 55.
Other seats in New Mexico
- New Mexico 2
DEM WINS
REP WINS
90
10
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- New Mexico 3
DEM WINS
REP WINS
95
5
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
Social simulation, not a pollTue, 13 Oct 2026