Virginia · District 5
McGuire wins 93 of 100 simulated elections
The simulation rates VA-5 safe Republican. The middle simulated result is R+8.4, and 8 in 10 fall between R+15.4 and R+1.5.
DEM WINS
REP WINS
7
93
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
Tom Perriello (D) vs. John McGuire (R)
Margin, 8 in 10 simulated elections
R+20EvenD+20
Beside the benchmarks
- Our simulation, Nov. 3
- Perriello 7 in 100
- Statistics only, no simulation
- Perriello 6 in 100
- Expert ratings, averaged
- Likely R
- Incumbent
- John McGuire (R)
On watch: statistics, with the biggest stories checked every day.
Over time
Perriello's chance in 100
The shaded band is the toss-up zone, 45 to 55.
Other seats in Virginia
- Virginia 2
DEM WINS
REP WINS
54
46
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Virginia 1
DEM WINS
REP WINS
41
59
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Virginia 10
DEM WINS
REP WINS
97
3
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Virginia 7
DEM WINS
REP WINS
97
3
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Virginia 6
DEM WINS
REP WINS
0
100
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Virginia 9
DEM WINS
REP WINS
0
100
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
Social simulation, not a pollTue, 13 Oct 2026