November 3, 2026Updated daily
NotAPoll.org

Iowa · District 1

Miller-Meeks wins 69 of 100 simulated elections

The simulation rates IA-1 likely Republican. The middle simulated result is R+2.7, and 8 in 10 fall between R+10.0 and D+4.5.

DEM WINS

REP WINS

31

69

of 100 simulations, 3 Nov

Christina Bohannan (D) vs. Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R)

Margin, 8 in 10 simulated elections

R+10EvenD+10

Beside the benchmarks

Our simulation, Nov. 3
Bohannan 31 in 100
Statistics only, no simulation
Bohannan 30 in 100
Expert ratings, averaged
Lean D
Incumbent
Mariannette Miller-Meeks (R)

Full simulation: voter personas react to each day's news in this race.

Over time

Bohannan's chance in 100

The shaded band is the toss-up zone, 45 to 55.

025507510012 Oct13 Oct31

Other seats in Iowa

  • Iowa 2

    DEM WINS

    REP WINS

    33

    67

    of 100 simulations, 3 Nov

  • Iowa 3

    DEM WINS

    REP WINS

    28

    72

    of 100 simulations, 3 Nov

  • Iowa 4

    DEM WINS

    REP WINS

    1

    99

    of 100 simulations, 3 Nov

Social simulation, not a pollTue, 13 Oct 2026