Maryland · District 1
Harris wins 97 of 100 simulated elections
The simulation rates MD-1 safe Republican. The middle simulated result is R+13.8, and 8 in 10 fall between R+22.9 and R+4.9.
DEM WINS
REP WINS
3
97
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
Dan Schwartz (D) vs. Andy Harris (R)
Margin, 8 in 10 simulated elections
R+25EvenD+25
Beside the benchmarks
- Our simulation, Nov. 3
- Schwartz 3 in 100
- Statistics only, no simulation
- Schwartz 3 in 100
- Expert ratings, averaged
- Safe R
- Incumbent
- Andy Harris (R)
Statistics only: every benchmark calls this seat safe.
Over time
Schwartz's chance in 100
The shaded band is the toss-up zone, 45 to 55.
Other seats in Maryland
- Maryland 6
DEM WINS
REP WINS
95
5
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Maryland 2
DEM WINS
REP WINS
100
0
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Maryland 3
DEM WINS
REP WINS
100
0
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Maryland 5
DEM WINS
REP WINS
100
0
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Maryland 4
DEM WINS
REP WINS
100
0
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Maryland 7
DEM WINS
REP WINS
100
0
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
Social simulation, not a pollTue, 13 Oct 2026