Texas · District 38
Bonck wins 94 of 100 simulated elections
The simulation rates TX-38 safe Republican. The middle simulated result is R+14.7, and 8 in 10 fall between R+26.5 and R+2.9.
DEM WINS
REP WINS
6
94
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
Melissa McDonough (D) vs. Jon Bonck (R)
Margin, 8 in 10 simulated elections
R+30EvenD+30
Beside the benchmarks
- Our simulation, Nov. 3
- McDonough 6 in 100
- Statistics only, no simulation
- McDonough 6 in 100
- Expert ratings, averaged
- Safe R
- Incumbent
- Wesley Hunt (R), not running
On watch: statistics, with the biggest stories checked every day.
Over time
McDonough's chance in 100
The shaded band is the toss-up zone, 45 to 55.
Other seats in Texas
- Texas 34
DEM WINS
REP WINS
54
46
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Texas 15
DEM WINS
REP WINS
38
62
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Texas 28
DEM WINS
REP WINS
68
32
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Texas 35
DEM WINS
REP WINS
24
76
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Texas 23
DEM WINS
REP WINS
10
90
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Texas 10
DEM WINS
REP WINS
5
95
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
Social simulation, not a pollTue, 13 Oct 2026