Ohio · District 9
Merrin wins 58 of 100 simulated elections
The simulation rates OH-9 lean Republican. The middle simulated result is R+1.1, and 8 in 10 fall between R+8.2 and D+6.1.
DEM WINS
REP WINS
42
58
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
Marcy Kaptur (D) vs. Derek Merrin (R)
Margin, 8 in 10 simulated elections
R+10EvenD+10
Beside the benchmarks
- Our simulation, Nov. 3
- Kaptur 42 in 100
- Statistics only, no simulation
- Kaptur 40 in 100
- Expert ratings, averaged
- Toss-up
- Incumbent
- Marcy Kaptur (D)
Full simulation: voter personas react to each day's news in this race.
Over time
Kaptur's chance in 100
The shaded band is the toss-up zone, 45 to 55.
Other seats in Ohio
- Ohio 7
DEM WINS
REP WINS
37
63
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Ohio 10
DEM WINS
REP WINS
16
84
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Ohio 15
DEM WINS
REP WINS
15
85
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Ohio 1
DEM WINS
REP WINS
87
13
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Ohio 14
DEM WINS
REP WINS
4
96
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Ohio 13
DEM WINS
REP WINS
97
3
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
Social simulation, not a pollTue, 13 Oct 2026