November 3, 2026Updated daily
NotAPoll.org

Utah · District 4

Kennedy wins 99 of 100 simulated elections

The simulation rates UT-4 safe Republican. The middle simulated result is R+20.7, and 8 in 10 fall between R+29.6 and R+11.8.

DEM WINS

REP WINS

1

99

of 100 simulations, 3 Nov

Jonny Larsen (D) vs. Mike Kennedy (R)

Margin, 8 in 10 simulated elections

R+30EvenD+30

Beside the benchmarks

Our simulation, Nov. 3
Larsen 1 in 100
Statistics only, no simulation
Larsen 0 in 100
Expert ratings, averaged
Safe R
Incumbent
Burgess Owens (R)

Statistics only: every benchmark calls this seat safe.

Over time

Larsen's chance in 100

The shaded band is the toss-up zone, 45 to 55.

025507510012 Oct13 Oct1

Other seats in Utah

  • Utah 2

    DEM WINS

    REP WINS

    5

    95

    of 100 simulations, 3 Nov

  • Utah 3

    DEM WINS

    REP WINS

    0

    100

    of 100 simulations, 3 Nov

  • Utah 1

    DEM WINS

    REP WINS

    100

    0

    of 100 simulations, 3 Nov

Social simulation, not a pollTue, 13 Oct 2026