Montana · District 2
Downing wins 100 of 100 simulated elections
The simulation rates MT-2 safe Republican. The middle simulated result is R+30.2, and 8 in 10 fall between R+39.1 and R+21.3.
DEM WINS
REP WINS
0
100
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
Brian Miller (D) vs. Troy Downing (R)
Margin, 8 in 10 simulated elections
R+40EvenD+40
Beside the benchmarks
- Our simulation, Nov. 3
- Miller 0 in 100
- Statistics only, no simulation
- Miller 0 in 100
- Expert ratings, averaged
- Safe R
- Incumbent
- Troy Downing (R)
Statistics only: every benchmark calls this seat safe.
Over time
Miller's chance in 100
The shaded band is the toss-up zone, 45 to 55.
Other seats in Montana
- Montana 1
DEM WINS
REP WINS
25
75
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
Social simulation, not a pollTue, 13 Oct 2026