Washington · District 9
Smith wins 100 of 100 simulated elections
The simulation rates WA-9 safe Democratic. The middle simulated result is D+51.9, and 8 in 10 fall between D+40.3 and D+63.5.
DEM WINS
REP WINS
100
0
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
Adam Smith (D) vs. Doug Basler (R)
Margin, 8 in 10 simulated elections
R+65EvenD+65
Beside the benchmarks
- Our simulation, Nov. 3
- Smith 100 in 100
- Statistics only, no simulation
- Smith 100 in 100
- Expert ratings, averaged
- Safe D
- Incumbent
- Adam Smith (D)
Statistics only: every benchmark calls this seat safe.
Over time
Smith's chance in 100
The shaded band is the toss-up zone, 45 to 55.
Other seats in Washington
- Washington 3
DEM WINS
REP WINS
78
22
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Washington 5
DEM WINS
REP WINS
11
89
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Washington 4
DEM WINS
REP WINS
6
94
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Washington 8
DEM WINS
REP WINS
95
5
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Washington 10
DEM WINS
REP WINS
100
0
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Washington 6
DEM WINS
REP WINS
100
0
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
Social simulation, not a pollTue, 13 Oct 2026