Connecticut · District 5
Hayes wins 95 of 100 simulated elections
The simulation rates CT-5 safe Democratic. The middle simulated result is D+16.0, and 8 in 10 fall between D+4.3 and D+27.6.
DEM WINS
REP WINS
95
5
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
Jahana Hayes (D) vs. Chris Shea (R)
Margin, 8 in 10 simulated elections
R+30EvenD+30
Beside the benchmarks
- Our simulation, Nov. 3
- Hayes 95 in 100
- Statistics only, no simulation
- Hayes 94 in 100
- Expert ratings, averaged
- Safe D
- Incumbent
- Jahana Hayes (D)
On watch: statistics, with the biggest stories checked every day.
Over time
Hayes's chance in 100
The shaded band is the toss-up zone, 45 to 55.
Other seats in Connecticut
- Connecticut 2
DEM WINS
REP WINS
97
3
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Connecticut 3
DEM WINS
REP WINS
99
1
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Connecticut 1
DEM WINS
REP WINS
100
0
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Connecticut 4
DEM WINS
REP WINS
100
0
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
Social simulation, not a pollTue, 13 Oct 2026