November 3, 2026Updated daily
NotAPoll.org

Iowa · District 2

Mitchell wins 67 of 100 simulated elections

The simulation rates IA-2 likely Republican. The middle simulated result is R+2.3, and 8 in 10 fall between R+9.5 and D+5.0.

DEM WINS

REP WINS

33

67

of 100 simulations, 3 Nov

Lindsay James (D) vs. Joe Mitchell (R)

Margin, 8 in 10 simulated elections

R+10EvenD+10

Beside the benchmarks

Our simulation, Nov. 3
James 33 in 100
Statistics only, no simulation
James 32 in 100
Expert ratings, averaged
Toss-up
Incumbent
Ashley Hinson (R), not running

Full simulation: voter personas react to each day's news in this race.

Over time

James's chance in 100

The shaded band is the toss-up zone, 45 to 55.

025507510012 Oct13 Oct33

Other seats in Iowa

  • Iowa 1

    DEM WINS

    REP WINS

    31

    69

    of 100 simulations, 3 Nov

  • Iowa 3

    DEM WINS

    REP WINS

    28

    72

    of 100 simulations, 3 Nov

  • Iowa 4

    DEM WINS

    REP WINS

    1

    99

    of 100 simulations, 3 Nov

Social simulation, not a pollTue, 13 Oct 2026