Texas · District 16
Escobar wins 99 of 100 simulated elections
The simulation rates TX-16 safe Democratic. The middle simulated result is D+25.2, and 8 in 10 fall between D+13.5 and D+37.2.
DEM WINS
REP WINS
99
1
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
Veronica Escobar (D) vs. Adam Bauman (R)
Margin, 8 in 10 simulated elections
R+40EvenD+40
Beside the benchmarks
- Our simulation, Nov. 3
- Escobar 99 in 100
- Statistics only, no simulation
- Escobar 99 in 100
- Expert ratings, averaged
- Safe D
- Incumbent
- Veronica Escobar (D)
Statistics only: every benchmark calls this seat safe.
Over time
Escobar's chance in 100
The shaded band is the toss-up zone, 45 to 55.
Other seats in Texas
- Texas 34
DEM WINS
REP WINS
54
46
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Texas 15
DEM WINS
REP WINS
38
62
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Texas 28
DEM WINS
REP WINS
68
32
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Texas 35
DEM WINS
REP WINS
24
76
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Texas 23
DEM WINS
REP WINS
10
90
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Texas 38
DEM WINS
REP WINS
6
94
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
Social simulation, not a pollTue, 13 Oct 2026