November 3, 2026Updated daily
NotAPoll.org

Oregon · District 4

Hoyle wins 99 of 100 simulated elections

The simulation rates OR-4 safe Democratic. The middle simulated result is D+22.5, and 8 in 10 fall between D+10.6 and D+34.2.

DEM WINS

REP WINS

99

1

of 100 simulations, 3 Nov

Val Hoyle (D) vs. Monique DeSpain (R)

Margin, 8 in 10 simulated elections

R+35EvenD+35

Beside the benchmarks

Our simulation, Nov. 3
Hoyle 99 in 100
Statistics only, no simulation
Hoyle 99 in 100
Expert ratings, averaged
Safe D
Incumbent
Val Hoyle (D)

Statistics only: every benchmark calls this seat safe.

Over time

Hoyle's chance in 100

The shaded band is the toss-up zone, 45 to 55.

025507510012 Oct13 Oct99

Other seats in Oregon

  • Oregon 5

    DEM WINS

    REP WINS

    97

    3

    of 100 simulations, 3 Nov

  • Oregon 6

    DEM WINS

    REP WINS

    98

    2

    of 100 simulations, 3 Nov

  • Oregon 2

    DEM WINS

    REP WINS

    1

    99

    of 100 simulations, 3 Nov

  • Oregon 1

    DEM WINS

    REP WINS

    100

    0

    of 100 simulations, 3 Nov

  • Oregon 3

    DEM WINS

    REP WINS

    100

    0

    of 100 simulations, 3 Nov

Social simulation, not a pollTue, 13 Oct 2026