Indiana · District 8
Messmer wins 100 of 100 simulated elections
The simulation rates IN-8 safe Republican. The middle simulated result is R+34.1, and 8 in 10 fall between R+45.8 and R+22.3.
DEM WINS
REP WINS
0
100
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
Mary Allen (D) vs. Mark Messmer (R)
Margin, 8 in 10 simulated elections
R+50EvenD+50
Beside the benchmarks
- Our simulation, Nov. 3
- Allen 0 in 100
- Statistics only, no simulation
- Allen 0 in 100
- Expert ratings, averaged
- Safe R
- Incumbent
- Mark Messmer (R)
Statistics only: every benchmark calls this seat safe.
Over time
Allen's chance in 100
The shaded band is the toss-up zone, 45 to 55.
Other seats in Indiana
- Indiana 5
DEM WINS
REP WINS
10
90
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Indiana 1
DEM WINS
REP WINS
95
5
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Indiana 2
DEM WINS
REP WINS
1
99
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Indiana 4
DEM WINS
REP WINS
1
99
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Indiana 9
DEM WINS
REP WINS
0
100
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Indiana 3
DEM WINS
REP WINS
0
100
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
Social simulation, not a pollTue, 13 Oct 2026