North Carolina · District 4
Foushee wins 100 of 100 simulated elections
The simulation rates NC-4 safe Democratic. The middle simulated result is D+53.8, and 8 in 10 fall between D+42.1 and D+65.6.
DEM WINS
REP WINS
100
0
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
Valerie Foushee (D) vs. Max Ganorkar (R)
Margin, 8 in 10 simulated elections
R+70EvenD+70
Beside the benchmarks
- Our simulation, Nov. 3
- Foushee 100 in 100
- Statistics only, no simulation
- Foushee 100 in 100
- Expert ratings, averaged
- Safe D
- Incumbent
- Valerie Foushee (D)
Statistics only: every benchmark calls this seat safe.
Over time
Foushee's chance in 100
The shaded band is the toss-up zone, 45 to 55.
Other seats in North Carolina
- North Carolina 1
DEM WINS
REP WINS
52
48
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- North Carolina 11
DEM WINS
REP WINS
39
61
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- North Carolina 3
DEM WINS
REP WINS
7
93
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- North Carolina 5
DEM WINS
REP WINS
6
94
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- North Carolina 7
DEM WINS
REP WINS
5
95
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- North Carolina 8
DEM WINS
REP WINS
5
95
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
Social simulation, not a pollTue, 13 Oct 2026