Pennsylvania · District 16
Kelly wins 98 of 100 simulated elections
The simulation rates PA-16 safe Republican. The middle simulated result is R+20.8, and 8 in 10 fall between R+32.6 and R+9.1.
DEM WINS
REP WINS
2
98
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
Justin Wagner (D) vs. Mike Kelly (R)
Margin, 8 in 10 simulated elections
R+35EvenD+35
Beside the benchmarks
- Our simulation, Nov. 3
- Wagner 2 in 100
- Statistics only, no simulation
- Wagner 1 in 100
- Expert ratings, averaged
- Safe R
- Incumbent
- Mike Kelly (R)
Statistics only: every benchmark calls this seat safe.
Over time
Wagner's chance in 100
The shaded band is the toss-up zone, 45 to 55.
Other seats in Pennsylvania
- Pennsylvania 7
DEM WINS
REP WINS
52
48
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Pennsylvania 10
DEM WINS
REP WINS
43
57
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Pennsylvania 1
DEM WINS
REP WINS
42
58
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Pennsylvania 8
DEM WINS
REP WINS
20
80
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Pennsylvania 17
DEM WINS
REP WINS
95
5
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Pennsylvania 11
DEM WINS
REP WINS
3
97
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
Social simulation, not a pollTue, 13 Oct 2026