Kansas · District 4
Estes wins 98 of 100 simulated elections
The simulation rates KS-4 safe Republican. The middle simulated result is R+21.6, and 8 in 10 fall between R+33.3 and R+9.7.
DEM WINS
REP WINS
2
98
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
Katy Tyndell (D) vs. Ron Estes (R)
Margin, 8 in 10 simulated elections
R+35EvenD+35
Beside the benchmarks
- Our simulation, Nov. 3
- Tyndell 2 in 100
- Statistics only, no simulation
- Tyndell 1 in 100
- Expert ratings, averaged
- Safe R
- Incumbent
- Ron Estes (R)
Statistics only: every benchmark calls this seat safe.
Over time
Tyndell's chance in 100
The shaded band is the toss-up zone, 45 to 55.
Other seats in Kansas
Social simulation, not a pollTue, 13 Oct 2026