New Mexico · District 2
Vasquez wins 90 of 100 simulated elections
The simulation rates NM-2 safe Democratic. The middle simulated result is D+6.9, and 8 in 10 fall between R+0.1 and D+13.9.
DEM WINS
REP WINS
90
10
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
Gabe Vasquez (D) vs. Greg Cunningham (R)
Margin, 8 in 10 simulated elections
R+15EvenD+15
Beside the benchmarks
- Our simulation, Nov. 3
- Vasquez 90 in 100
- Statistics only, no simulation
- Vasquez 87 in 100
- Expert ratings, averaged
- Lean D
- Incumbent
- Gabe Vasquez (D)
On watch: statistics, with the biggest stories checked every day.
Over time
Vasquez's chance in 100
The shaded band is the toss-up zone, 45 to 55.
Other seats in New Mexico
- New Mexico 3
DEM WINS
REP WINS
95
5
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- New Mexico 1
DEM WINS
REP WINS
99
1
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
Social simulation, not a pollTue, 13 Oct 2026