North Carolina · District 11
Balkcom wins 61 of 100 simulated elections
The simulation rates NC-11 lean Republican. The middle simulated result is R+1.4, and 8 in 10 fall between R+8.6 and D+5.8.
DEM WINS
REP WINS
39
61
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
Jamie Ager (D) vs. Jennifer Balkcom (R)
Margin, 8 in 10 simulated elections
R+10EvenD+10
Beside the benchmarks
- Our simulation, Nov. 3
- Ager 39 in 100
- Statistics only, no simulation
- Ager 38 in 100
- Expert ratings, averaged
- Toss-up
- Incumbent
- Chuck Edwards (R), not running
Full simulation: voter personas react to each day's news in this race.
Over time
Ager's chance in 100
The shaded band is the toss-up zone, 45 to 55.
Other seats in North Carolina
- North Carolina 1
DEM WINS
REP WINS
52
48
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- North Carolina 3
DEM WINS
REP WINS
7
93
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- North Carolina 5
DEM WINS
REP WINS
6
94
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- North Carolina 7
DEM WINS
REP WINS
5
95
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- North Carolina 8
DEM WINS
REP WINS
5
95
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- North Carolina 14
DEM WINS
REP WINS
4
96
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
Social simulation, not a pollTue, 13 Oct 2026