Arizona · District 2
Crane wins 96 of 100 simulated elections
The simulation rates AZ-2 safe Republican. The middle simulated result is R+10.4, and 8 in 10 fall between R+17.5 and R+3.2.
DEM WINS
REP WINS
4
96
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
Jonathan Nez (D) vs. Eli Crane (R)
Margin, 8 in 10 simulated elections
R+20EvenD+20
Beside the benchmarks
- Our simulation, Nov. 3
- Nez 4 in 100
- Statistics only, no simulation
- Nez 3 in 100
- Expert ratings, averaged
- Likely R
- Incumbent
- Eli Crane (R)
On watch: statistics, with the biggest stories checked every day.
Over time
Nez's chance in 100
The shaded band is the toss-up zone, 45 to 55.
Other seats in Arizona
- Arizona 6
DEM WINS
REP WINS
60
40
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Arizona 1
DEM WINS
REP WINS
72
28
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Arizona 8
DEM WINS
REP WINS
6
94
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Arizona 4
DEM WINS
REP WINS
96
4
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Arizona 5
DEM WINS
REP WINS
2
98
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Arizona 9
DEM WINS
REP WINS
0
100
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
Social simulation, not a pollTue, 13 Oct 2026