Oklahoma · District 5
Bice wins 95 of 100 simulated elections
The simulation rates OK-5 safe Republican. The middle simulated result is R+11.8, and 8 in 10 fall between R+20.6 and R+3.2.
DEM WINS
REP WINS
5
95
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
Jena Nelson (D) vs. Stephanie Bice (R)
Margin, 8 in 10 simulated elections
R+25EvenD+25
Beside the benchmarks
- Our simulation, Nov. 3
- Nelson 5 in 100
- Statistics only, no simulation
- Nelson 5 in 100
- Expert ratings, averaged
- Safe R
- Incumbent
- Stephanie Bice (R)
On watch: statistics, with the biggest stories checked every day.
Over time
Nelson's chance in 100
The shaded band is the toss-up zone, 45 to 55.
Other seats in Oklahoma
- Oklahoma 1
DEM WINS
REP WINS
5
95
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Oklahoma 4
DEM WINS
REP WINS
0
100
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Oklahoma 3
DEM WINS
REP WINS
0
100
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Oklahoma 2
DEM WINS
REP WINS
0
100
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
Social simulation, not a pollTue, 13 Oct 2026