Arizona · District 4
Stanton wins 96 of 100 simulated elections
The simulation rates AZ-4 safe Democratic. The middle simulated result is D+17.0, and 8 in 10 fall between D+5.4 and D+28.8.
DEM WINS
REP WINS
96
4
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
Greg Stanton (D) vs. Zuhdi Jasser (R)
Margin, 8 in 10 simulated elections
R+30EvenD+30
Beside the benchmarks
- Our simulation, Nov. 3
- Stanton 96 in 100
- Statistics only, no simulation
- Stanton 95 in 100
- Expert ratings, averaged
- Safe D
- Incumbent
- Greg Stanton (D)
On watch: statistics, with the biggest stories checked every day.
Over time
Stanton's chance in 100
The shaded band is the toss-up zone, 45 to 55.
Other seats in Arizona
- Arizona 6
DEM WINS
REP WINS
60
40
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Arizona 1
DEM WINS
REP WINS
72
28
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Arizona 8
DEM WINS
REP WINS
6
94
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Arizona 2
DEM WINS
REP WINS
4
96
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Arizona 5
DEM WINS
REP WINS
2
98
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Arizona 9
DEM WINS
REP WINS
0
100
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
Social simulation, not a pollTue, 13 Oct 2026