Kentucky · District 4
Gallrein wins 100 of 100 simulated elections
The simulation rates KY-4 safe Republican. The middle simulated result is R+29.3, and 8 in 10 fall between R+41.0 and R+17.4.
DEM WINS
REP WINS
0
100
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
Melissa Strange (D) vs. Ed Gallrein (R)
Margin, 8 in 10 simulated elections
R+45EvenD+45
Beside the benchmarks
- Our simulation, Nov. 3
- Strange 0 in 100
- Statistics only, no simulation
- Strange 0 in 100
- Expert ratings, averaged
- Safe R
- Incumbent
- Thomas Massie (R), not running
Statistics only: every benchmark calls this seat safe.
Over time
Strange's chance in 100
The shaded band is the toss-up zone, 45 to 55.
Other seats in Kentucky
- Kentucky 6
DEM WINS
REP WINS
15
85
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Kentucky 3
DEM WINS
REP WINS
99
1
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Kentucky 2
DEM WINS
REP WINS
0
100
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Kentucky 1
DEM WINS
REP WINS
0
100
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- Kentucky 5
DEM WINS
REP WINS
0
100
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
Social simulation, not a pollTue, 13 Oct 2026