November 3, 2026Updated daily
NotAPoll.org

Nevada · District 4

Horsford wins 97 of 100 simulated elections

The simulation rates NV-4 safe Democratic. The middle simulated result is D+12.7, and 8 in 10 fall between D+4.6 and D+20.7.

DEM WINS

REP WINS

97

3

of 100 simulations, 3 Nov

Steven Horsford (D) vs. Cody Whipple (R)

Margin, 8 in 10 simulated elections

R+25EvenD+25

Beside the benchmarks

Our simulation, Nov. 3
Horsford 97 in 100
Statistics only, no simulation
Horsford 97 in 100
Expert ratings, averaged
Likely D
Incumbent
Steven Horsford (D)

On watch: statistics, with the biggest stories checked every day.

Over time

Horsford's chance in 100

The shaded band is the toss-up zone, 45 to 55.

025507510012 Oct13 Oct97

Other seats in Nevada

  • Nevada 2

    DEM WINS

    REP WINS

    15

    85

    of 100 simulations, 3 Nov

  • Nevada 3

    DEM WINS

    REP WINS

    94

    6

    of 100 simulations, 3 Nov

  • Nevada 1

    DEM WINS

    REP WINS

    97

    3

    of 100 simulations, 3 Nov

Social simulation, not a pollTue, 13 Oct 2026