California · District 33
Aguilar wins 97 of 100 simulated elections
The simulation rates CA-33 safe Democratic. The middle simulated result is D+18.8, and 8 in 10 fall between D+7.0 and D+30.5.
DEM WINS
REP WINS
97
3
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
Pete Aguilar (D) vs. Stephanie Vargas (R)
Margin, 8 in 10 simulated elections
R+35EvenD+35
Beside the benchmarks
- Our simulation, Nov. 3
- Aguilar 97 in 100
- Statistics only, no simulation
- Aguilar 97 in 100
- Expert ratings, averaged
- Safe D
- Incumbent
- Pete Aguilar (D)
Statistics only: every benchmark calls this seat safe.
Over time
Aguilar's chance in 100
The shaded band is the toss-up zone, 45 to 55.
Other seats in California
- California 22
DEM WINS
REP WINS
60
40
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- California 48
DEM WINS
REP WINS
92
8
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- California 13
DEM WINS
REP WINS
93
7
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- California 23
DEM WINS
REP WINS
4
96
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- California 35
DEM WINS
REP WINS
96
4
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- California 5
DEM WINS
REP WINS
3
97
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
Social simulation, not a pollTue, 13 Oct 2026