North Carolina · District 6
McDowell wins 98 of 100 simulated elections
The simulation rates NC-6 safe Republican. The middle simulated result is R+14.1, and 8 in 10 fall between R+22.1 and R+6.1.
DEM WINS
REP WINS
2
98
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
Cyril Jefferson (D) vs. Addison McDowell (R)
Margin, 8 in 10 simulated elections
R+25EvenD+25
Beside the benchmarks
- Our simulation, Nov. 3
- Jefferson 2 in 100
- Statistics only, no simulation
- Jefferson 1 in 100
- Expert ratings, averaged
- Safe R
- Incumbent
- Addison McDowell (R)
Statistics only: every benchmark calls this seat safe.
Over time
Jefferson's chance in 100
The shaded band is the toss-up zone, 45 to 55.
Other seats in North Carolina
- North Carolina 1
DEM WINS
REP WINS
52
48
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- North Carolina 11
DEM WINS
REP WINS
39
61
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- North Carolina 3
DEM WINS
REP WINS
7
93
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- North Carolina 5
DEM WINS
REP WINS
6
94
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- North Carolina 7
DEM WINS
REP WINS
5
95
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
- North Carolina 8
DEM WINS
REP WINS
5
95
of 100 simulations, 3 Nov
Social simulation, not a pollTue, 13 Oct 2026